El Niño Climate Pattern Threatens Copper and Nickel Output

The natural climate pattern known as El Niño could disrupt global copper and nickel production through early 2027, according to a report by BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions. The phenomenon—characterized by sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean rising at least 0.5°C above average—threatens major mining regions with droughts, flooding, and power shortages.

Mines, smelters, ports, and transport infrastructure are all likely to be affected, constraining output and increasing supply-side volatility. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center reported in October 2026 that strong-to-very strong El Niño conditions are likely to persist through January–March 2027, with an 83% probability that the event over the October–December 2026 period will exceed the intensity of previous episodes dating back to 1950.

Regional Impacts on Copper and Nickel

Weather and mining operations are affected differently depending on the region, causing drier conditions in parts of Australia and Southeast Asia while bringing wetter weather to South America. For copper, key operations in Latin America face flood risks, particularly in Chile and Peru, which could impact production and transportation. A previous El Niño event in 2017 caused copper operations in Chile, including Anglo American’s Los Bronces and Codelco’s El Teniente, to halt activities.

In Africa, drier conditions in Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo threaten to reduce hydropower generation, triggering electricity shortages and raising costs for energy-intensive copper smelters. For nickel, Indonesia faces near-term operational risks as drought-related water constraints impact production. In September 2026, the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park confirmed that several nickel smelters had reduced output amid water shortages, with earlier reports indicating about 100,000 tonnes of NPI production could be affected.

## Key facts

• BMI reports El Niño conditions could disrupt copper and nickel production through early 2027.
• The NOAA Climate Prediction Center noted an 83% probability that the late 2026 event will exceed the intensity of previous episodes since 1950.
• In September 2026, the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park confirmed nickel smelter output reductions due to water shortages.
• BMI expects copper and nickel markets to remain in a modest surplus in 2026.