Vitol Warns of $200 Oil as Shipping Bottlenecks Mount

World's top independent oil trader Vitol Group has warned that crude oil prices could surge to $200 per barrel if ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman are disrupted. According to Russell Hardy, chief executive officer at Vitol, these transfers provide a vital lifeline to Gulf producers and the broader oil market as Western inventories remain depleted.

Speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, Hardy noted that while crude flows out of the Persian Gulf have reached 14 million barrels per day over the past week, volumes remain below pre-war levels. The crisis has increasingly shifted from a crude and product deficit into a severe shipping crisis, driven by inefficient tanker transfers and rising security threats in the Strait of Hormuz.

Escalating Shipping Costs and Tanker Scarcity

Maritime security sources cited by Reuters report that at least 12 attacks on oil, LNG, and liquefied petroleum gas tankers occurred around the Strait of Hormuz in the week leading to October 5. The US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center highlighted ongoing Iranian attempts to assert presence along key transit lanes.

These geopolitical tensions and the reliance on shuttle shipping have severely constrained global tanker availability. Tanker earnings exceeded an unprecedented $500,000 per day in early October, according to ING senior sector economist Rico Luman. Shipping costs for crude from Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura to Rotterdam surged from $2 per barrel last year to over $35 a barrel in September.

Key facts

• Vitol CEO Russell Hardy warned of a $200-a-barrel scenario if Gulf ship-to-ship transfers are halted.
• Middle East oil exports totaled 14 million barrels per day over a recent 7-to-10 day period, including 12 million bpd of crude.
• At least 12 attacks on tankers occurred around the Strait of Hormuz in the week to October 5.
• Global crude vessel earnings exceeded $500,000 per day in early October, tenfold the 2025 average.
• Shipping costs from Saudi Arabia to Rotterdam climbed from $2 to over $35 per barrel.