US Crude Output Hits Record While Diesel Supplies Remain Low

The United States is producing more crude oil than ever, with output on track to average a record 13.8 million barrels per day in 2026, according to the Energy Information Administration. Despite this record production, diesel prices recently climbed to record highs and distillate inventories remain unusually low. The EIA expects those inventories to stay below the five-year range through much of 2027, with stocks falling below 100 million barrels for the first time in more than two decades.

Refining Bottlenecks And Product Yields

Crude oil and diesel are not interchangeable commodities. Oil must pass through a refinery before it becomes diesel, gasoline, or other petroleum products. A typical 42-gallon barrel of crude processed in a U.S. refinery produces roughly 19 to 20 gallons of gasoline and 11 to 13 gallons of ultra-low-sulfur distillate. In 2025, distillate accounted for about 30% of total U.S. refinery yield, while finished gasoline accounted for nearly 46%.

During the third quarter, U.S. refineries operated at an average of roughly 96% of capacity amid strong refining margins. Operable atmospheric crude-distillation capacity stood at about 18.2 million barrels per day at the beginning of 2026, down roughly 250,000 barrels per day from a year earlier across 130 operable petroleum refineries.

Global Supply Pressures

International factors have further strained product availability. Russia has restricted fuel exports due to Ukrainian attacks on its refining system, Middle Eastern production has been disrupted by conflict, and China suspended most fuel exports for October. Meanwhile, European refining capacity has fallen from roughly 17.5 million barrels per day in 2009 to about 14.4 million barrels per day.

Key facts

• U.S. crude production is projected to average 13.8 million barrels per day in 2026.
• Distillate inventories are expected to stay below the five-year range through much of 2027, falling below 100 million barrels.
• U.S. refineries operated at approximately 96% capacity during the third quarter.
• Operable U.S. crude-distillation capacity declined by about 250,000 barrels per day from a year earlier to 18.2 million barrels per day at the start of 2026.