UBS Data Shows Russian Oil Exports Near Pre-War Levels

According to data published by UBS chief economist Arend Kapteyn, Russian crude oil exports are holding at only about 10% below pre-war levels. The findings demonstrate that Western sanctions and efforts by Ukraine to curtail Russia's export capacity have failed to cripple crude volumes, with Moscow instead successfully reconfiguring its supply chain.

Supply Chain Shift to Asia

The most prominent shift in Moscow's export destinations involves the European Union and Asian buyers. According to the data, the EU's share of Russian crude exports collapsed from 48% before the war to just 4% by September. Conversely, the combined share purchased by China, India, and Turkey surged from 29% to 77%. Furthermore, approximately 61% of Russian crude is now transported on a shadow fleet operating outside Western financing and insurance systems.

Refining Disruptions and Global Prices

While crude exports have remained resilient, Ukrainian drone strikes have inflicted significant damage on domestic refining capacity within Russia. This has forced Moscow to import refined petroleum products, an unusual occurrence for a major exporter of diesel, fuel oil, and naphtha. This dynamic, combined with disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, has added pressure to global refining capacity and helped keep gasoline prices elevated.

Key facts

• UBS estimates Russian crude exports remain about 10% below pre-war levels.
• Roughly 61% of Russian crude moves on shadow fleet tankers outside Western insurance.
• The EU's share of Russian crude fell from 48% to 4%, while China, India, and Turkey's share rose from 29% to 77%.
• Ukrainian strikes forced Russia to import refined petroleum products, contributing to elevated global gasoline prices.