Truflation Forecasts US Headline CPI to Rise to 3.6% in September

Truflation has forecast that September U.S. headline inflation will rise to 3.6% from August’s 3.4%, while annual core inflation will hold at 2.4% as weaker hiring and easing housing costs restrain consumer price pressure, according to a report published by CryptoNews. The company expects headline prices to rise 0.48% from August.

The projected 2.4% annual core CPI figure sits below the 2.5% market consensus cited in the report. Truflation attributed the expected increase in headline inflation to gasoline, tariffs, and higher costs entering the production chain, though housing, food, and discretionary durable goods are expected to provide some relief ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release.

Energy and Import Pressures

Gasoline prices rose 4.8% from August and 32.1% from a year earlier, serving as the main source of headline inflation pressure. Outside of energy, clothing and footwear prices increased 0.4% monthly, while communications prices climbed 2.8% due to cellular-plan pricing changes. Conversely, food moved in the opposite direction, falling 0.1% during September alongside a 0.5% drop in grocery prices and a 0.2% monthly decline in housing costs.

Further back in the supply chain, the report cited August producer inflation at 5.4% annually and a 7% annual increase in import prices. The September ISM prices index reached 77.9 for manufacturers and 74.0 for services, indicating that input costs remain elevated.

Employment and Market Implications

On the employment side, payroll growth slowed to 29,000 and unemployment rose to 4.2%, with annual pay growth moderating to 4%. Truflation noted that while additional interest-rate increases cannot directly resolve supply disruptions, higher costs spreading into core goods and services could justify keeping monetary policy restrictive.

For investors monitoring digital assets, Bitfinex analysts identified the September CPI release as a key test of interest-rate expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, noting that softer core inflation would weaken the case for a December rate increase.

Key Facts

• September U.S. headline inflation is forecast to rise to 3.6% annually, with a 0.48% monthly increase.
• Annual core inflation is projected to hold at 2.4%, coming in below the 2.5% market consensus.
• Gasoline prices increased 4.8% monthly and 32.1% annually, driving the headline inflation pressure.
• Payroll growth slowed to 29,000 and unemployment rose to 4.2%, while annual pay growth moderated to 4%.