Russian Oil Flows to India Plunge to 310,000 Bpd

India's crude oil imports from Russia have dropped significantly, driven primarily by changing market economics rather than the threat of U.S. tariffs, according to OilPrice. In the four weeks leading up to October 4, crude shipments from Russia to India averaged 310,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. That marks the lowest estimated four-week level since March 2022, when Indian refiners began ramping up imports of discounted Russian crude following Western sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine.

Rising Prices and Competition

According to sources cited by OilPrice, Russia is scaling back imports as the price of its flagship Urals grade loaded in Baltic ports has jumped, nearly matching Middle Eastern crudes. Urals has been offered at premiums exceeding $10 per barrel over Dated Brent, while intensified competition from China for Russian supplies has further constrained availability.

Simultaneously, crude availability from the Middle East has increased following a rebound in flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Consequently, Indian refiners have opted for Gulf region supplies as price differentials narrowed.

Tariff Cautiousness

While India has not formally directed refiners to cut Russian purchases, market participants have adopted a more cautious stance following U.S. legislation signed by President Donald Trump. The law permits potential trade tariffs of up to 100% on nations that import large volumes of Russian oil and natural gas.

Analysts note that India is unlikely to completely replace its Russian crude imports despite potential tariff risks, but shifting pricing dynamics and improved Middle Eastern availability are facilitating the current reduction.

Key facts

• Crude shipments from Russia to India averaged 310,000 bpd in the four weeks to October 4.
• This is the lowest estimated four-week level since March 2022.
• Urals grade loaded in Baltic ports is offered at premiums exceeding $10 per barrel over Dated Brent.
• Middle Eastern crude availability has increased as flows through the Strait of Hormuz rebounded.