Polymarket Investigates Dozens of Midterm Election Bets

Prediction market Polymarket has investigated "dozens" of bets on midterm election markets for possible insider trading and market manipulation, according to a report by Decrypt citing NPR. Shana Bautista, Polymarket's head of global intelligence and investigations, stated that the platform's surveillance system generates hundreds of alerts daily ahead of the November 3 vote.

At least two of the investigated cases have been referred to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), according to a person familiar with the probes cited by NPR. Bautista, a former FBI official and crypto analyst who joined Polymarket in June, leads a team of 16 policing election contracts across both the U.S.-regulated exchange and Polymarket International.

Surveillance Systems and Data Sources

The platform's surveillance system draws on social media, Federal Election Commission filings, crypto companies, banking partners, and statistical models. Bautista noted that crypto trades are rarely fully anonymous, stating that her team has consistently been able to identify users when necessary. The platform previously partnered with blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis in April to bolster its market surveillance tools.

Wider Election Market Scrutiny

Election prediction markets face heightened vulnerability to insider trading as campaign staffers and insiders possess unreleased polling data. Rival prediction market Kalshi has also implemented tracking mechanisms, reporting over 150 investigations and more than 20 referrals to law enforcement over the year.

Key facts

• Polymarket investigated dozens of bets on midterm election markets for potential insider trading and manipulation.
• At least two cases have been referred to the CFTC.
• Shana Bautista leads Polymarket's head of global intelligence and investigations team of 16.
• The surveillance system generates hundreds of alerts a day ahead of the November 3 vote.