JPMorgan Projects Bitcoin to Outperform Stocks and Gold

JPMorgan Asset Management has included Bitcoin in its long-term capital market outlook for the first time, projecting the asset to outperform stocks and gold over the next decade, according to Cointelegraph.

In its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report published on Monday, JPMorgan projects a 10% annualized return for Bitcoin ($BTC). This compares with a projected 7.5% annualized return for large-cap US stocks and 5.5% for gold. The annual outlook covers more than 200 assets to assist investors with portfolio planning.

Volatility Limits Diversification Role

Despite the positive long-term return projection, the report cautions that Bitcoin's volatility makes it unsuitable for diversifying portfolios under current market conditions.

"At the moment, we do not make a case for Bitcoin as a diversifier in portfolios due to its unstable market correlations," the report stated, adding that the firm views Bitcoin as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing.

Bull and Bear Scenarios

JPMorgan's calculations factor in Bitcoin supply growth relative to money supply, its potential role alongside gold, and network adoption. Under the firm's bull case, Bitcoin's annualized return is projected at 16.6%. Conversely, the bear case calculates an annualized loss of 11.2%.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan welcomed the inclusion, noting the contrast with past industry resistance. Meanwhile, Bitwise previously published an even more bullish forecast in August 2025, projecting Bitcoin could reach $1.3 million by 2035 with a base-case annualized return of 28.3%.

Key facts

• JPMorgan Asset Management included Bitcoin in its long-term capital market outlook for the first time.
• The 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report projects a 10% annualized return for Bitcoin.
• Large-cap US stocks are projected at 7.5% and gold at 5.5% annualized returns.
• JPMorgan's bull case projects a 16.6% annualized return, while its bear case projects an 11.2% loss.