Europe Faces Diesel Shortage as China Halts Exports

Europe’s diesel supply crunch is deepening as imports fell to a record low for September and key exporters tighten shipments. China announced this week it will suspend all fuel exports for the remainder of the month to protect its domestic market, while President Donald Trump warned Germany and France to release 120 million barrels of diesel from their strategic reserves or face a U.S. diesel export ban, according to OilPrice.

Record Low Imports

Vortexa reported diesel imports into Europe averaged just 1 million barrels per day in September, roughly 600,000 bbl/d below the same month in 2025. The analyst Mick Strauttman noted that “diesel on the water pointed to Europe is more than 25% below last year’s levels,” suggesting October will see similarly weak arrivals.

Domestic Production Constraints

European refinery runs were down 600,000 bbl/d from August after maintenance delays, and unplanned outages have already emerged. The continent has lost about 30% of its refining capacity since 2009, further increasing reliance on imports.

Strategic Reserves Under Pressure

Germany and France together hold about 35% of the EU’s 39 million‑ton strategic diesel stockpile – roughly two months of consumption. Bruegel analyst Georg Zachmann warned the EU is structurally short on diesel, a situation exacerbated by tax incentives that favoured diesel vehicles.

Key facts

• China suspends all fuel exports for the month.
• U.S. threatens a diesel export ban on Germany and France.
• September diesel imports hit a record low of 1 M bbl/d.
• EU strategic diesel reserves cover just over two months of demand.
• Refinery capacity in the EU has fallen by about one‑third since 2009.