Crypto Sentiment Cools as Fear and Greed Index Hits August Low

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 56, a neutral reading, on Monday from 67 a week earlier and an August 26 peak of 82, according to Decrypt. The shift comes as macroeconomic pressures, including rising oil prices and surging Treasury yields, weigh on risk assets.

Bitcoin dropped about 6% from a peak of $86,978 early last week to slide as low as $81,749.83 on October 8, before recovering to roughly $83,800 on Monday. The leading cryptocurrency trades about 34% below its all-time high of above $126,000, set on October 6, 2025. The broader market cooldown follows a summer rally that had driven the Fear and Greed Index into extreme territory.

Macro Headwinds and Outflows

According to Decrypt, macroeconomic headwinds contributed to the market shift. Brent crude topped $101 a barrel last week amid shipping attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, while the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70%, its highest level since 2002. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded outflows of $484.9 million last week on Wednesday and another $244.1 million the following day, resulting in a net loss of $386.3 million for October. Meanwhile, Ethereum funds extended their outflow streak to nine days, with $635 million withdrawn during the month.

Prediction Markets and Trader Positioning

Traders on the prediction market Myriad currently assign a 45% probability to Bitcoin hitting $87,500 in October, down from 55% on October 7. At the same time, market participants are pricing in a 56% probability that Bitcoin drops to $80,000, followed by 33% odds for a decline to $77,500 and 20% odds for $75,000.

Key facts

• The Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 56 on Monday from an August 26 peak of 82.
• Bitcoin dropped about 6% from $86,978 to a low of $81,749.83 before recovering to roughly $83,800.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $386.3 million for October following heavy mid-week withdrawals.
• The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 5.70%, its highest level since 2002.
• Myriad traders give a 56% probability of Bitcoin dropping to $80,000 in October.