China Draws Down Oil Reserves to Limit Import Dependence

China has drawn heavily on its estimated 1.2-billion-barrel reserves to limit the need for new crude purchases as international oil prices hover above $100 per barrel, according to OilPrice. The world's biggest crude importer utilized its massive stash for most months following March, with September withdrawals averaging approximately 530,000 barrels per day (bpd).

Import Policies and Reserves

Before the Iran war, China amassed an estimated 1.4 billion barrels in commercial and strategic stockpiles. This cushion enabled Beijing to slash import demand when the Strait of Hormuz closed and prices spiked. During the spring, China reduced its total crude oil imports to a decade low in June, cutting import volumes by an estimated 4.4 million bpd compared to the 2025 average. In July, China added roughly 200,000 bpd to its reserves as imports rebounded while refinery runs stayed low, representing the only month of the past five with a net addition.

Fourth Quarter Outlook

Chinese crude imports could fall to 9.2 million to 9.3 million bpd in the fourth quarter, well below last year's average of 11.6 million bpd, as high oil prices encourage further stock draws. Analysts at FGE NexantECA and Energy Aspects revised down their fourth-quarter projections by about 400,000 bpd. Meanwhile, October imports are expected to rebound above 10 million bpd, supported by Middle East flows, August purchases made around $80 per barrel, and resuming fuel exports, though high prices will likely constrain further material increases.

Key facts

• China's crude inventories are estimated at at least 1.2 billion barrels following sustained withdrawals.
• September crude withdrawals averaged roughly 530,000 bpd.
• Fourth-quarter imports are projected between 9.2 million and 9.3 million bpd by analysts at FGE NexantECA and Energy Aspects.