CFTC Monitors Prediction Markets for 2026 Midterm Manipulation

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is actively monitoring prediction markets for potential manipulation ahead of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, according to a recent television interview given by CFTC Chairman Michael Selig. Bloomberg’s interview covered election-market surveillance alongside ongoing oversight initiatives, noting that the agency is watching for irregularities without immediately identifying a new election-related enforcement case.

Market Open Interest and Holdings

The regulatory focus arrives as prediction markets record substantial open positions. According to research cited from Dune dated Oct. 18, combined midterm open interest on platforms Kalshi and Polymarket stood at $250 million. Kalshi accounted for $210 million, representing 84% of the total, while Polymarket held $40 million. During the seven-day period through Oct. 18, the two platforms recorded $59 million in combined notional trading. Over the entire election cycle, Dune measured $353 million in notional volume on Kalshi and $160 million on Polymarket.

Enforcement and Guidance

Separate CFTC records detail recent actions against individual traders, including settlements involving former White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez and former Rep. George Santos. These actions imposed financial sanctions and three-year trading bans for trading on confidential information or personal conduct contracts. Additionally, CFTC staff issued guidance on Sept. 22 calling for contract-specific safeguards on markets tied to an individual's words or actions to mitigate heightened manipulation risks.

Key facts

• CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated the agency is monitoring prediction markets for potential manipulation ahead of the 2026 U.S. midterms.
• Combined midterm open interest on Kalshi and Polymarket reached $250 million as of Oct. 18.
• Dune data attributed $210 million of open interest to Kalshi and $40 million to Polymarket.
• Recent CFTC settlements against individual traders imposed financial penalties and three-year trading bans.