Bitcoin Realized Cap Data Hints at Early Bull Market

Onchain transaction data for Bitcoin ($BTC) is pointing toward the start of a new uptrend as long-term holders pull back from selling, according to analysis by CryptoQuant.

The percentage of Bitcoin’s realized cap involving coins dormant for 18 months or longer has remained broadly stable since mid-September, dropping from 26.98% to 26.59%. Historical trends show that prior Bitcoin bull markets were accompanied by similar long-term reductions in onchain activity from this specific cohort.

Long-Term Holder Activity Shift

Data from CryptoQuant shows that investors holding coins for 18 months or longer are becoming less active. On September 16, the 18-month-plus cohort's share of realized cap hit 26.98%, marking its highest level since mid-November 2024.

Reduced onchain spending by these long-term investors reflects an effort to maintain exposure and increase long-term profitability. CryptoQuant noted that the UTXO trend reversal remains modest, signaling that the broader market is only experiencing the very beginning of more bullish conditions.

Market Drawdown Context

Among long-term holders, only the 18-month-to-two-year cohort currently sits in a net loss, holding a cost basis of $93,193. Bitcoin has fallen below this cohort's cost basis following its 2025 all-time high of $126,200, while older cohorts remain in aggregate profit.

According to a report by investment firm Galaxy Digital, the current correction represents the shallowest bear market on record, with a maximum drawdown of -53% from all-time highs. Furthermore, coins unmoved for five years or more have dropped to an average supply volume of 34,000 BTC per month in 2026, down from 67,000 BTC per month in 2024.

Key facts

• The share of Bitcoin's realized cap held by coins dormant for 18 months or longer dropped from 26.98% on September 16 to 26.59%.
• Coins unmoved for at least five years account for approximately 34,000 BTC in monthly onchain volume, down by half compared to 2024 levels.
• Galaxy Digital reports a maximum bear market drawdown of -53% from all-time highs.
• The 18-month-to-two-year cohort holds a cost basis of $93,193.